Knowing a little about the laws of probability, I have never been tempted by the attractions of gambling.
After all, supporting John Player & Sons and the Chilean wine industry puts enough of a strain on a man’s pocket without getting involved with what my grandfather warned me were the two surest roads to ruin: slow horses and fast women.
I do occasionally venture the odd fiver on the results of the Six Nations when my expertise in rugby matters might give me the edge.
Unfortunately, my early years in Wales (1966-1979) left me so far behind the curve that I doubt if I live to a hundred I will ever recoup my losses.
However, my interest in gambling perked up when I read the following piece in the Pembrokeshire Herald about a large bet being placed on the parliamentary re-election bid of Stephen Crabb, who’s latterly served in the cabinet as Secretary of State for Wales:
If Crabb is at 5 to 1 on in what is essentially a two horse race, the odds on Paul Miller must be quite attractive, I thought to myself.
So, last Friday afternoon, I telephoned Bet Ed to see what price they would offer me on the Labour candidate.
The young lady told me they weren’t running a book on the local results in General Election.
But, as I’d read it in the paper, it must be true, so I rang again on Tuesday and was now told that Miller was 7/2.
“What about Crabb?” I asked, and was informed he had shortened to 6 to 1 on.
And that’s why you never see a poor bookie.
There is some misunderstanding among the non-betting public about how bookmakers operate.
We hear things on the radio like “the bookies, who usually know about these things, are making X a hot favourite” which leads us to believe it is the bookies’ view of the outcome.
In fact, the odds offered by the bookie are a reflection of how much money has been laid on a particular horse/candidate.
The art of keeping a book is to make sure it balances in the bookie’s favour.
So, in the example above Honest Joe could take a £13,000 bet on Paul Miller and still come out in front.
If Crabb wins he pays out £10,000 (£3,000 in the black) and if Miller wins he pays out £45,500 (£4,500 to the good).
The Liberal philosopher John Stuart Mill described the Tories as “the stupidest party”, though I hadn’t realised that one of them would be daft enough to accept such short odds on what is likely to be a close run thing.
Bet Ed is lucky indeed to have such customers.
What is interesting is that one of the directors of Bet Ed is county councillor Mark Edwards, who is an ultra-loyal member of the IPPG despite, as his register of interests reveals, being a card-carrying member of the Tory party.
Assuming no other bets are laid, the upshot is that if Crabb defends the Preseli Pembrokeshire seat, Bet Ed bookies stands to lose £60,000 – the £50,000 stake they would have retained had he lost + the ten grand they will have to pay out.
This is not the first time Cllr Edwards finds himself with divided loyalties.
During the Burton by election a couple of years ago, he was spotted out on the canvassing rounds for the IPPG’s candidate Rob Summons who was running against an official Tory, Robin Wilson.
You get thrown out of proper democratic parties for this sort of thing, but this is the Pembrokeshire Conservatives/IPPG.
Another interesting newspaper article appeared in the County Echo (Fishguard) which is predicting that Crabb will win with an increased majority.
I wonder what odds Bet Ed are offering on that eventuality.
The County Echo is owned by the Tindle group (prop. Sir Ray Tindle) which is based in Farnham, Surrey.
About a year after we launched the Milford Mercury, Grumpette and I were invited up to Farnham for lunch with Mr Tindle in the splendid oak-panelled boardroom at the company’s head office.
It soon became obvious that this was not a social get together between newspaper folk – Tindle was lining us up for a takeover.
Once he had been disabused of the notion that we might be in the market, the newspaper tycoon set about showing us what an important chap he was.
On the marble mantelshelf were several seating plans for Downing Street dinners that Ray had attended including one where Mrs Thatcher had found herself seated right next to the great man himself.
Strangely, he wasn’t knighted until 1994 by which time Mrs T had been replaced by John Major.
It seems that the local Tories are indulging in a bit of what the Americans refer to as boosterism (enthusiastic and usually excessive support for something or someone) with a view to dispiriting the opposition, though venturing fifty grand for a potential return of just £10k seems way beyond the call of duty.
However, it has led to the unprecedented situation where I am rooting for an IPPG member to come out on top.